By Ljudmila Petrovic

“When dictatorship is a fact, revolution becomes a right.”-Victor Hugo
In countries across the Middle East, oppressive governments were a fact for decades. The year 2010, however, saw the beginning of what many people around the world saw as a rightful revolution- it became known as the Arab Spring. Optimists believed it was capable of changing the face of democracy and of the Middle East. More than a year has passed since the world was swept up in images of revolution: have things really changed all that much for the big players?

TUNISIA
Tunisia was the first country to erupt in demonstration in December 2010, after a fruit vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, set himself on fire in protest. It is also one of the countries that have made the most democratic progress since their uprising. In January 2011, the Tunisian people brought down president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali and, though the country seemed to be on the path of democracy, there were nonetheless growing tensions around the crippled economy, not to mention between liberal secularists and Islamic extremists. The temporary post-revolution government was meant to be one of unity, and was headed by prime minister Mohamed Ghannouchi. There were, however, protests that he associated too closely with former president Ben Ali, and in February 2011, he resigned and was replaced by Beji Caid Essebsi.
In May 2011, the interim government allowed the UN special rapporteur on torture to visit the country, something that the UN had been requesting since 1998. The Fact-Finding Commission was also set up to look into human rights abuses and violations that had occurred during and since the December 2010 uprisings. Despite this, Amnesty International’s January 2012 Report stated that “no significant steps were taken by the new authorities to address the impunity for past human rights violations.”
In June 2011, trials began for former president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali — who had fled the country in January — and members of his family, on charges of embezzlement and misuse of state funds, which led to a 35-year prison sentence for Ben Ali later that month. He got another 15 years for separate charges involving drugs and weapons.
August, however, saw the reinstatement of the nationwide state of emergency, and it was reported that security forces continued to hold down protestors, using methods such as tear gas, with further allegations of continued police abuse and torture.
However, according to the Interior Ministry, by September 2011, the government had allowed 1,366 NGO associations and 111 political parties that had been formerly banned — including the Tunisian Workers’ Communist Party —to legally register. In October, Constituent Assembly elections — originally scheduled for July — were held. Unlike previous years, independent institutions were set up to manage the polls, members of the international community were allowed to observe the election, and foreign journalists were allowed coverage. The Ennahda Movement, a group that had been previously banned, won the largest number of seats. “The movement is committed to democracy,” said party leader Rachid Ghannouchi at the time of the elections. “On the agenda of the movement [is]: building on the gains achieved by women, improving women’s lives . . . so they could effectively take part in advancing society”. In November, new press laws were instated that gave greater freedom to newspapers and journalists.
In December 2011, Moncef Marzouki was elected as interim president. This was seen as a positive change for Tunisia, as his prior career had been as a doctor, politician, and human rights activist, and he had long criticized Ben Ali’s dictatorship.
On March 26th, 2012, Ennahda announced that a draft of Tunisia’s new constitution would maintain Islam as the state’s religion and Arabic as its official language, but that it would not mention Islamic law as a legislative foundation. This made it clear that the current government, while respecting Islamic roots, would function based on secularism.
Needless to say, tensions are still high between conservative Islamist groups — such as Salafis — and liberal secularists in Tunisia: in late May 2012, for example, 15 people were arrested after Salafis set police stations on fire and rampaged bars that sold alcohol.
Meanwhile, new trials for former president Ben Ali continue, with the most recent sentencing taking place in a military court this month: an additional 20 years for his part in the shooting of four youths in January 2011.
The general consensus of most analyses of Tunisia’s current situation is that the country is improving gradually: new numbers show that the country’s tourism is improving as the political situation settles down. However, it is at this point unknown how the religious tensions will play out.

EGYPT
On February 11th, 2011, after months of protests, president Hosni Mubarak finally fell from power, and the military assumed interim power. A referendum was held over constitutional amendments, and on March 30th, the military government adopted a Constitutional Declaration that outlined the transfer of power to a new government. It seemed that Egypt was on the right track: the interim government dismantled the security police agency that had been infamous for violating human rights, and allowed the registration of a number of previously banned political parties—including the Muslim Brotherhood organization, a strongly Islamist opposition. While the new government recognized the rights of unions and federations, they implemented new laws that banned strikes. Moreover, it was announced in September 2011 that the state of emergency would be maintained, with more media restrictions, and an extended list of criminal acts that now included things like blocking roads. Egypt has seemed to be in a bit of limbo for months as the country tries to get back on its feet, deal with the aftermaths of the violence of the uprisings, and look to the future elections and the re-writing of its constitution.
After Mubarak’s thirty-year reign — and more than a year under the interim military government — May 23rd, 2012 finally saw Egyptians hitting the polls to choose their first freely elected president. Several days later, it was confirmed that Ahmed Shafik — the former prime minister under Mubarak and a veteran of the air force — would be running against the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohamed Morsi in the election. In the meantime, on June 2rd, Mubarak — who has been on trial since last August — was sentenced to life in prison for his failure to act during the killings of protestors in the January 2011 uprising. On June 13th, only days before the scheduled election, the military government re-instated martial law, sparking controversy about their intentions come the election. On June 18th, Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood was declared the new president. That same day, the military council had issued an interim constitution, which granted it immense power over the future government. “Egypt has completely left the realm of the Arab Spring and entered the realm of military dictatorship”, said human rights activist Hossam Bahgat of the military declaration. The future of Egypt and everything they have fought for is still unknown at the time of print.

LIBYA
Libyan leader Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi became infamous for both his eccentricity and his 40-year grip on the Libyan people. In August 2011, after six months of civil unrest, Qaddafi was pushed from power, and on October 20th, armed rebels killed him in his hometown of Sirte. Three days later, the Transitional National Council took power, preparing the country for a new constitution and a democratic election, with Abdel Rahim el-Keeb elected as prime minister. The Council announced its vision to uphold democracy. However, contrary to what many expected, the gunfire and conflict did not ease up: civilian militias went after those they suspected to be Qaddafi loyalists. A couple of members of the Transitional National Council were kidnapped and held hostage for several days. This constant turmoil has been the backdrop for Libya as the long-awaited national election approaches on the horizon. Weeks before the scheduled June 19th, 2012 election, the interim prime minister’s headquarters in Tripoli were attacked by armed men; the prime minister was said to have not been in the building at the time — a sign of just how extreme the civil unrest remains to this day. Another major incident occurred on June 7th in the city of Zintan, when a civilian militia group detained four individuals working for the International Criminal Court: two lawyers and two court officials, and would not communicate their reasons for detaining them. This same group also held one of Col. Qaddafi’s sons, Seif el-Islam, captive without explanation After recovering Islam and detention of Qaddafi’s son, whom Libyan officials refuse to give to the Hague tribunal for his war crimes. On June 10th, Libyan officials announced the postponement of the national election to July 7th. Transitional authorities have yet to make election arrangements, such as the candidate list, and voter registration is so behind schedule that a June 19th election would be impossible.

SYRIA
Syria has been one of the countries subject to the most ongoing turmoil: according to Human Rights Watch’s 2012 World Report, the Syrian government was responsible for the death of an estimated 3,500 protesters and bystanders since November 15th, 2011, as well as human rights violations such as arbitrary arrests and torture. Furthermore, there were cases of Syrian authorities denying medical assistance to injured civilian protestors, not to mention the highly publicized arrests of activists and journalists trying to document the uprisings in Syria.
In the first phases of protest, Syria’s president Assad appeared to be on the fence between using force to quash protestors, and making reforms to appease them. In early April of last year, president Assad issued a decree that would grant nationality to the Kurds living in the eastern al-Hasaka region, an identity struggle that has been ongoing for decades. By the end of that month, Assad had also lifted the 48-year-old state of emergency. The summer of 2011 saw decrees increasing freedom of the media; however, at the same time, thousands of soldiers began to launch attacks against the government in protest of the continuing crackdowns — despite the apparent changes, the government was still one of force and authority. By December, the United Nations announced that Syria was on the verge of civil war. The Syrian National Council — meant to be an oppositional government — was formed in exile, but it, too, was so divided that it didn’t get recognition from Western or Arab governments.
The conflict in Syria is made all the more complicated by the power struggles between ethnic divisions: the Alawite sect holds the majority of the power, while the Sunni Muslims make up 75 per cent of the population.
Syria has been on the international community’s radar since the beginning of the protests, yet there are tensions and disagreement as to how Syria should be approached: in February 2012, the UN General Assembly voted to approve a resolution that would condemn the force used by president Assad, but Russia and China used their power to block any action on the part of the Security Council. The Arab League, the United States, and European Union states, among others, have all condemned Assad’s violence — some, such as the Arab League, have set their own sanctions or embargos on Syria — but China and Russia again warned against such sanctions.
The situation in Syria seems to be getting worse: in May 2012, the Red Crescent announced that up to 1.5 million people in Syria needed assistance in obtaining food, water, or shelter. On June 1st, 2012, the UN Human Rights Council called for an international inquiry into an attack on the village of Houla that resulted in over 100 civilian deaths. Days later, president al-Assad denied the government’s part in the massacre, despite evidence from the UN that armed government militia had been responsible. In response to the May 29th removal of Syrian ambassadors from 11 countries, including the US, on June 5th, the Syrian government announced the expulsion of Western diplomats from Syria. They agreed, however, to allow an increase in aid from international agencies.
The international community continued to watch Syria in helpless awe for the next several days, as UN monitors attempting to investigate the hamlet of Qubeir — where scattered body parts and bullet holes were indicative of atrocities — were blocked and shot at by Syrian government troops. June 9th and 10th saw outbreaks of even more violence, with clashes between soldiers and rebels in both southwest Syria and parts of the central Homs province — an estimated total of 55 people were killed, including women and children. These developments caused the top UN peacekeeping official to announce that Syria could now be considered in a state of civil war on June 12th. The world looked on as international missions failed in the face of Syrian gunfire, and as the United Nations continues to report new information about the direness of the Syrian situation: children as young as eight years old are allegedly being used as human shields for the Syrian military. On June 16th, the UN announced that due to the escalating clashes in Syria, it was suspending its observer mission. Syria had been the backdrop for ongoing international attempts at maintaining peace, not to mention tensions between world players such as the Unites States and Russia on how to approach the Syrian crisis — on June 15th, Russia’s chief arms exporter had announced that his company would provide Syria with defensive missile systems in case of US intervention.
Complicated by decades of oppression, religious differences, and tensions, this area is a complex one: the events of the Arab Spring were inspiring, and elevating, but now, over a year later, the countries involved are either left to pick up the pieces, or are entering new chapters of tension and turmoil. Vladimir Lenin — a man who, whether you like him or not, knew about revolution — once said, “It is impossible to predict the time and progress of revolution. It is governed by its own more or less mysterious laws.” Looking at the aftermath of the Arab Spring, it is easy to feel pessimistic, but the effects may not truly begin to show for many years to come.
Addendum: At the time of print, former Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak was on life-support, with conflicting, unconfirmed reports on whether or not he was clinically dead.