By: Niveja Assalaarachchi, News Writer
On June 14, US and Iran announced they had come to a provisional ceasefire deal to end the state of conflict between the two countries. A memorandum of understanding (MOU) was signed on June 17 by US President Donald Trump and Iran President Masoud Pezeshkian. However, the ceasefire has since been broken by both sides, with Trump declaring the MOU “over” as of July 9. However, Washington as a whole remains committed to conversations around the MOU, despite the president’s comments.
Conflict broke out between the two countries this year on February 28, when the US and Israel launched a series of military strikes on key economic and military sites in Iran.
Since February 28, the current conflict has claimed the lives of over 7,300 people, with allegations of war crimes being levelled against the US and Israel. The conflict severely impacted the global economy, with rising oil and commodity prices largely being blamed on the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, a vital naval route through which 25% of all global goods flow.
The Peak reached out to the Iran War Observatory to learn more. The Iran War Observatory was established at the start of the conflict by five analysts under the Centre for Comparative Muslim Studies. Aidan Gough, a political analyst at the Observatory, corresponded with The Peak.
Prior to Trump’s announcement, Gough shared that the centre is “deeply skeptical” of the MOU. “The MOU lacks structural guarantees ensuring this wealth will systematically benefit daily civilian life rather than reinforcing state security apparatuses and its interests abroad.”
The MOU had not added new provisions relating to the enrichment of uranium. Article 8 called on Iran to “not procure or develop nuclear weapons,” and Article 9 noted both countries would “agree to maintain the status quo” in regards to Iran’s nuclear program. Gough noted the omission of the subject was due to Washington’s primary aim to end the economic effects of the war and to potentially get “delayed leverage” on Iran.
Overall, he said
“The MOU marks a significant departure from Washington’s initial wartime objective of ‘maximum pressure’ or regime capitulation/collapse, moving instead towards a framework of managed economic interdependence.” — Aidan Gough, political analyst at the Iran War Observatory
The impact of the war and Canada’s role in the conflict has also been of note for the analysts. Prime Minister Mark Carney released a statement supporting the US when conflict broke out, noting the importance of preventing “Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon and to prevent its regime from further threatening international peace and security.” However, he had since expressed “regret” over the direction of conflict, saying that the US-Israeli strikes were “inconsistent with international law,” as reported by Global News.
