According to SFU professor and researcher Jonn Axsen, the future of electric vehicles and the key to their popularization is already here, but the lack of government support and promotion is limiting accessibility and sales.
The 2015 Canadian Plug-In Electric Vehicle Study led by Axsen and his colleague Suzanne Goldberg, both professors in the School of Resource and Environmental Management (REM), analyzed the current influence on electric vehicles sales, and identified measures that could be taken to increase their popularity.
They found not only that current electric vehicle availability and sales are extremely low, but that current methods of promotion are ineffective. “Electric vehicles are not likely to make up more than one percent of vehicle sales in the next decade and no more than four or five per cent by 2030,” explained Axsen in a SFU media release.
However, Goldberg identified that improved government support and promotion has the potential to increase sales to more than 20 per cent by 2030.
The study split Canadian consumers into three groups: those who already possessed an electric vehicle as “PEV (plug-in electric vehicle) pioneers,” those who would buy a vehicle after the pioneers as “potential early mainstream buyers,” and those who would not buy a vehicle as “later mainstream buyers.”
There are two main types of passenger electric vehicles examined in the study — plug-in electric vehicles and hybrid-electric vehicles.
Plug-in electric vehicles are further divided by their use of gasoline. Vehicles that start by using electricity and use gasoline during latter parts of a trip are referred to as plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), an example being the Chevrolet Volt.
Plug-in vehicles that rely solely on electricty, in exchange for a reduced range of driving on a single charge, are referred to as battery electric vehicles (BEVs), with the Tesla Model S being the most famous.
Hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs) like the Toyota Prius hybrid have no plug-in charge available, but offer improved fuel economy and thus greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions.
The study found that “mainstreamers” were generally confused about the different types of electric cars, and the very existence of plug-in models in Canada. However, after being educated on the topic, a third of the potential consumers expressed their desire to purchase a plug-in electric vehicle.
Furthermore, two-thirds of mainstreamers already possess the capability to charge an electric vehicle in their homes, with a conventional wall socket within 50 feet of their vehicles. The study found that public chargers did not increase awareness for plug-in electric vehicles.
According to Axsen, the lack of vehicle choice and the lack of public awareness of electric vehicles identified are problems identified by the study that can be eliminated with increased government support and promotion.
Axen and Goldberg referred to California as a successful model, where they have the Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandate imposing a set percentage of vehicle production to be electric, as well as Norway, which already has a 20 per cent “new vehicle market share” for electric vehicles due to successful policies like a vehicle tax exemption.
In BC, electric vehicles can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 98 per cent in comparison to traditional gasoline-based passenger vehicles. With transportation accounting for nearly a third of British Columbia’s GHG emissions, an increase in use and awareness of electric vehicles could significantly decrease BC’s GHG emissions.
